Lofty expectations aside, the sequel to the 2009 original needs to earn at least $2 billion just to break even. It means the movie must end up in the top five highest-grossing films of all time to even come close to earning a decent profit. Recent estimates peg the opening weekend of Avatar: The Way of Water at $150 to $180 million in the US alone according to Box Office Pro. This would eclipse the original movie’s $77 million opening weekend. Interestingly, two of Marvel Studios’ biggest movies this year had a similar opening. Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opened at the box office with $187.4 and $181 million respectively. Doctor Strange 2 earned just shy of $1 billion while Black Panther 2 is currently on course to earn around $800 million after this week. It helps that Avatar: The Way of Water is one of the handful of western movies to premiere in the massive Chinese market. It will provide a huge boost to the performance of Avatar 2. According to a report by Sacnilk.com, the movie has already sold $9 million in advanced ticket sales and is projected to earn $185 million from the Chinese market on its opening weekend. If Avatar: The Way of Water wants to recoup the cost to produce the movie and continue its story, it needs to be the first movie to break the $2 billion mark since the coronavirus pandemic started. Spider-Man: No Way Home came close with its $1.9 billion box office revenue. Looking at the box office this year, both Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion breached the $1 billion mark. The sequel to Tom Cruise’s 1986 aviation flick earned $1.4 billion while Chris Pratt’s third Jurassic Park movie earned $1 billion. This is solid proof that audiences love big-budget sequels. And hopefully is a good sign for Cameron’s Avatar 2. Avatar: The Way of Water should also look to the longevity of its theatrical run as one of the keys to its success. The first movie had an unprecedented eight-month run at the box office. With the holidays rolling in, we should see the movie on top of the box office charts when it releases this Friday. Early reviews for Avatar: The Way of Water have started coming in and the movie has been well-received by critics. Early reviews have noted that the movie is visually stunning and improves on the original. According to one review, the movie is best experienced on the big screen rather than streamed at home. A lot is hinged on the profitability of Avatar: The Way of Water. James Cameron’s reputation as a hitmaker is on the line with the sequel. Cameron directed two of the three highest-grossing movies of all time with Avatar and Titanic. More importantly, the future of the Avatar series is also on the line. Cameron has already planned for three more installments to the series in the next six years but it is all hinged on Avatar 2 making a sizeable profit. Avatar: The Way of Water will be coming to theaters and IMAX on December 16, 2022.
